Bonus calculator

The calculator turns the book’s core formulas into four small models. It does not identify a good offer for you. The quality of each result depends on the terms and probabilities you enter.

Read the complete promotion terms first. In particular, confirm the wagering basis, game contribution, stake-return rule, eligible markets, maximum stake, deadline, and withdrawal cap. The pre-deposit checklist provides a structured review, while the formula sheet shows each equation used here.

Private by design: calculations run in this browser tab. The tool does not send or save your inputs.

Expected value

Estimate a wager's base EV, then add cash-equivalent promotional value and subtract expected costs.

Stake ($)Cash at risk on the wager.Decimal oddsMust be greater than 1.00.Estimated win probability (%)Your evidence-based estimate, not the implied probability.Cash-equivalent promotional value ($)Expected realizable value, not the headline amount.Expected fees or completion costs ($)Include expected wagering loss, fees, or hedge cost not already modeled.

Calculate expected value

Wagering requirement

Translate a published multiplier into required handle and expected theoretical loss.

Deposit ($)Bonus ($)Wagering multiplierEnter 20 for a 20x requirement.Game contribution (%)The percentage of each wager credited toward playthrough.Assumed RTP (%)A long-run model, not a session forecast.

Calculate playthrough

Two-outcome hedge

Balance two opposing outcomes using either a cash primary wager or a stake-not-returned bonus bet.

Primary stake or credit ($)Primary decimal oddsOpposing decimal odds

Calculate hedge

Fixed-stake bankroll risk

Model identical independent bets and the chance that losses prevent one of the planned stakes.

Starting bankroll ($)Fixed stake ($)Decimal oddsEstimated win probability (%)Number of betsA whole number from 1 to 1,000.

Calculate bankroll model

How to interpret the modules

Expected value

The base calculation uses a cash stake, decimal odds, and your estimated probability of winning. Promotional value is added as a cash-equivalent estimate, not as a headline credit. Completion costs are subtracted.

The adjusted break-even probability can fall below 0% when the entered promotional value is larger than the cash exposure and costs. It can exceed 100% when costs are too high to overcome at the stated odds. Those results describe the inputs; they do not prove that the promotional estimate is accurate.

Review understanding expected value before relying on this module.

Wagering requirement

The published target applies the multiplier to either the bonus or the deposit plus bonus. The tool then divides that target by the contribution rate to estimate the raw handle needed. Expected theoretical loss applies 1 - RTP to that handle.

The remaining-value estimate is deliberately simple. It does not model variance, sticky balances, maximum conversion, excluded play, changing game choice, or an incomplete requirement. Use the exact terms and read wagering requirements with game weighting and contributions.

Two-outcome hedge

The hedge module balances two opposing outcomes. A cash wager includes the primary stake in its return. A stake-not-returned bonus bet pays only profit when it wins, so it uses a different formula.

The result is conditional. Both wagers must be accepted at the entered odds, cover the same outcome space, and settle under compatible rules. The model excludes exchange commission, taxes, fees, odds movement, partial acceptance, pushes, and voids. Review those failure points in matched betting fundamentals.

Fixed-stake bankroll risk

This module assumes every bet is independent and has the same stake, odds, and win probability. It calculates the exact probability, within that simplified model, that losses leave too little cash to place one of the bets planned for the chosen horizon.

Standard deviation describes dispersion around the expected result. It does not create a likely minimum or maximum. The raw Kelly fraction is included for comparison with the bankroll management chapter, not as a recommendation. A negative value means the entered assumptions do not support a positive Kelly allocation.

This stake-depletion figure models losing sequences only. It does not include restricted balances, unsettled wagers, pending withdrawals, or payment delays. The broader inability-to-fund risk discussed in the bankroll chapter includes those operational constraints.

Limits and responsible use

No calculation makes gambling safe. Keep essential funds outside a gambling bankroll, decide on time and loss limits before depositing, and stop when the activity no longer fits those limits. The responsible gambling page lists controls, warning signs, and U.S. support resources.

Inputs remain in this browser tab and are not saved by the calculator.